My prediction:
Obama 53.5% (364 electoral votes) to McCain 45.5% (174 electoral votes)
The current map:
Obama 311, McCain 155, Toss-Ups 72
How to watch the election tonight:
Obama will likely carry all of the Kerry and Gore states, giving him 264 electoral votes (270 votes needed to win). Because Pennsylvania is so hotly contested, his most solid blues make up 243 electoral votes.
His narrowest victory should include carrying Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia. (total: 291 electoral votes)
His next wave would be Florida and Ohio. (total: 338 electoral votes) Current polls show Florida tighter than Ohio.
If Obama has a big night, he may start dipping into Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina. (375 electoral votes).
A real big landslide would include Montana, North Dakota, and up to two districts in Nebraska. (383 electoral votes) But the mac-daddy of all would be surprise wins in Georgia and Arizona. (408 electoral votes with McCain at 130)
