Archive for November, 2008

tuesday, november 4

November 7, 2008

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What a memorable night. After the election was called for Barack Obama, a couple friends and I ventured over to the Lincoln Memorial – by far my favorite monument that commemorates the last president elected from Illinois and the steps from which Martin Luther King, Jr. gave his historic “I Have a Dream” speech.

It was a quiet, solemn setting. While thousands were block away celebrating outside the White House, there were only a dozen strangers gathered. Luckily a man brought a radio. We gathered around it to hear our new president’s acceptance speech.

Through the course of the speech, our group of a dozen grew to around fifty. It was amazing to look around into the teary eyes of these strangers, as many of them held each other and cried with one another.

Afterwards, a young African American guy who showed up looked over at me and said, “I just feel like hugging someone I don’t know.” Later I thought about how I grew up in a world where I could become anything I wanted to, even president of the United States. That’s probably not the world he grew up in, and I was envious of all the emotions he must now be experiencing.

P.S. It turns out a photographer from the New York Times reflected on this same experience, as well as a blogger at Sojourners.

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the results

November 7, 2008

Wow. I almost nailed the electoral college exactly… except it looks like Obama might take Omaha, Nebraska. Maine and Nebraska are the only states that split their electoral votes by congressional district, though neither state has ever had to before. But this year, it looks like Obama might narrowly take Omaha. If so, he will end up with 365 electoral votes… my prediction was 364. My popular vote total was a little more off. I guessed an 8% margin, but he will have to settle with +6.3%.

By the way, look at my life now:

tonight

November 4, 2008

My prediction:
Obama 53.5% (364 electoral votes) to McCain 45.5% (174 electoral votes)

The current map:
Obama 311, McCain 155, Toss-Ups 72

How to watch the election tonight:

Obama will likely carry all of the Kerry and Gore states, giving him 264 electoral votes (270 votes needed to win). Because Pennsylvania is so hotly contested, his most solid blues make up 243 electoral votes.

His narrowest victory should include carrying Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia. (total: 291 electoral votes)

His next wave would be Florida and Ohio. (total: 338 electoral votes) Current polls show Florida tighter than Ohio.

If Obama has a big night, he may start dipping into Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina. (375 electoral votes).

A real big landslide would include Montana, North Dakota, and up to two districts in Nebraska. (383 electoral votes) But the mac-daddy of all would be surprise wins in Georgia and Arizona. (408 electoral votes with McCain at 130)