James Pedrick’s Blog

what happens in vegas…

For the first time ever, Nevada may have an impact on who the next president of the United States is. The Democratic Party moved up the state’s caucuses in order to give Westerners, Unions, and Hispanics a greater voice in the nomination process.

But Nevada has very interesting politics. While it is a swing state, its politics are not polarized by typical partisan lines. In Nevada, there are two major influencers: casino money and union bosses. While unions are usually considered Democratic, the Nevada unions are good scouting for their best deal. In the late 1990’s, they were known for bucking expectations and endorsing a Republican Kenny Guinn.

The casino dollars can be hard to predict too. When Republican John Ensign went up against verteran Senator (now Majority Leader) Harry Reid, the casinos got behind Reid. But two years later, their overwhelming choice was John Ensign. Their preference was to have a horse in both parties rather than just one.

In 2008… (more…)

I couldn’t decide between “What Happened?” and “What Happens Next?” This is definitely a weird day in politics.

Polls can be wrong. Things can change. But usually, at least someone can feel the wind when it blows. The Clinton campaign has been depressed and expecting defeat. The Obama crowds have been big and certain of victory. Every poll was pointing to a win. The only possible shift in numbers was those independents choosing between McCain or Obama, but McCain didn’t really have that big of a win. In fact, many polls showed McCain doing better than +5%.

And no one knows what changed the vote. Was it Hillary’s debate? Her getting teared up?

The only certainty the exit polls show is a big shift in women voters. Hillary actually loss Iowa, where no woman has ever been elected governor, senator, or congresswoman. New Hampshire has a proud tradition of electing women. And Hillary did a few things recently that may have swung their vote. On Saturday’s debate, she reminded them that electing women is a big change. They also saw her fight hard, and get vividly frustrated at the Edwards and Obama gang up. And yesterday, they saw her “personal” side.

I didn’t think these would resonate with people, but I’m not a woman and obviously it did resonate with them.

Now the race is wide open with lots of questions. The next big contest, South Carolina, could still be squarely for Obama. But before that is Nevada, and no one knows where that will go. It’s a caucus with traditionally little impact or turnout. The unions were expected to endorse Obama tomorrow but that was when he had the mo… do they have time to change course or are they stuck with a horse? Either way, people might be scrambling for Nevada.

And what of Edwards? Will some see him as the spoiler or does this show he now should have the chance to take on Hillary? Everyone knows this is a two-person race, and he doesn’t have a ticket… but will his supporters get a clue?

Either way, mark your calendars. Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday is on February 5.

On the Republican side, Romney now thinks a win in Michigan can keep him going, but I say he is all out. McCain now has to try to round up as many anti-Huckabee votes in South Carolina as he can, but he won’t find the same moderate voters down there. Unlike New Hampshire, it’s full of Evangelical Conservatives.

Both of these parties could be heading to brokered conventions, which are not until late August and early September…

For the Democrats…
1. Obama
2. Hillary
3. Edwards

Obama will win by double-digits. If the win is big enough, look to see what happens with the “Don’t Tell Mama’s,” those secret Democrat establishment figures that have liked Obama but had to stay on the sidelines because of Hillary’s inevitability. Unless the win is too crushing to move forward, Clinton will try to regroup and rebrand, while Obama will quickly use rallies and endorsements to push her out fast and unite the party around him. One potential Clinton strategy is to skip South Carolina… but what happens if Edwards has more 2nd-place finishes than her?

For the Republicans…
1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Huckabee

Huckabee will do better than expected, but it will be muted by McCain’s win. Romney is out – rather he admits it or not. So McCain and Huckabee will battle it out in South Carolina… and that is your new front-runner.

Hillary went from losing the young vote, to really losing the young vote and perhaps New Hampshire and the nomination. At both the Republican and Democratic debates, candidates tried to get on the “Change” bandwagon that Obama rode to victory in Iowa. The most heated exchange came between Edwards and Clinton, with Hillary attacking Obama’s change and Edwards defending it. At this one heated exchange, Hillary came across angrier than anyone has ever really seen her publicly.

Obviously this was not a good moment for Hillary, and if played over and over again, could become her equivalent to Howard Dean’s scream. But I think the most long-lasting damage that Hillary did here was not so much her temperament but her statement about false hopes. Young people don’t like to be told the status-quo that positive change can’t be done and that their hopes are somehow false or impossible, especially when the status-quo is a broken system we don’t believe in.

Hillary made it very apparent that she is not campaigning on the same type of change that Obama has been campaigning on. She has tried to make the “change debate” about issues. But Obama’s change is something deeper, it is about the systems of government and politics that are stuck in typical gridlock and dehumanizing partnership.

Why can’t we have the change that we hope for and deserve from our government? And how can someone deliver it if they don’t even believe it is possible?

If Hillary is right and Obama is proven wrong, then young people will be forced back to their initial hunch: our nation and our government does not work, will not cooperate together or find common ground, and are not listening.

Today, Obama responded to Hillary’s comments by saying: “This whole notion of false hopes bothers me. There is no such thing as false hopes. We can focus and get things done.” Later, he said: “One of my opponents said we can’t just, you know, offer the American people false hopes about what we can get done. The real gamble in this election is to do the same things, with the same folks, playing the same games over and over and over again and somehow expect a different result. That is a gamble we cannot afford, that is a risk we cannot take. Not this time. Not now. It is time to turn the page.”

Maybe it’s about time that political leaders begin meeting our hopes and expectations, rather than us lowering our expectations to meet their goals and aspirations.

The Iowa Caucuses are over and there are just five days until New Hampshire. In the Dems corner, there’s a real chance the nomination will be essentially locked up, but with Hillary Clinton, not Barack Obama, as this year’s Howard Dean. If Obama succeeds on Tuesday, he will almost certainly take South Carolina on his way into Tsunami Tuesday. As a result, Hillary has just five days to put an end on Obama’s momentum – which is now a global story about an African American winning a 95%-white state with a surge of youth and independent turn-out and a win among women.

On the Republican side, Huckabee moves down to South Carolina while Romney has to win New Hampshire against John McCain in order to stay alive. Romney’s only luck is for the Obama story to drown out any momentum for McCain among independents. In other words, both Hillary and Romney need wins in New Hampshire, but they probably both won’t get them. If McCain wins New Hampshire, it will be a McCain v. Huckabee battle in South Carolina, with Giuliani hoping to be viable against the winner.

No word on if Fred Thompson will drop out as rumored. If he stays in, his strategy will center around South Carolina. With the Democrats, we do know that Dodd and Biden are dropping out, leaving Edwards and Richardson struggling to gain some traction.

I didn’t post my FINAL prediction for the Iowa Caucuses. I made these yesterday but this morning’s final polls show I might just be right on at least one of the races…

For the Democrats…
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton

For the Republicans…
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain

Obama has been gaining momentum, and Edwards seems most preferable to undecideds and “second choice” voters. Without a lead in the polls before the caucuses begin, Hillary is most likely to come in third… which could be devastating for the inevitable candidate.

Obama’s latest momentum was first tracked by the Des Moines Register poll, which many suggest has the most accurate snapshot. But other polls still had the race essentially tied. The most respected momentum-tracker, Zogby’s tracking poll, just gave Obama even more good news. Their poll has Obama moving from four-points behind Hillary to four-points ahead of Edwards, with Hillary in third. If these results are accurate, it will be a very good night for Obama and a very bad one for Clinton.

And if that’s not enough, Bill Richardson (polling in fourth) is telling his supporters to caucus for Obama when Richardson is not viable (you need 15% in a precinct’s caucus to be viable). This squashes rumors he was running to be Hillary’s Vice President. This means he either thinks Hillary could be done for and he’ll be the new dark horse experience candidate… or he’s betting Obama will get the nomination, and he wants to be his seasoned, experienced Vice President.

For the Republicans, both of these major polls show Huckabee clinging on to a lead over Romney and maybe even gaining some last minute momentum. But a secondary story is the battle for third place. If McCain can top Thompson, it could give him the final momentum needed to beat Romney in New Hampshire (and a Huckabee win over Romney would help him even more). There is also new speculation that Thompson will likely dropout and endorse McCain right after Iowa… this could give McCain enough momentum in Iowa to both win third and a key conservative endorsement before New Hampshire votes on January 8.