James Pedrick’s Blog

The average for the three main Democratic candidates in Iowa is 28% Clinton, 26% Obama, and 26% Edwards. That leaves 20% split undecided and between the remaining candidates. Where will these 20% go? For the Iowa Caucuses, the Democrats have a 15% rule, where a candidate much collect 15% of that precinct’s support in order to be counted; otherwise caucus-goers can move their support to another candidate.

No candidate is close to polling 15% throughout Iowa, so that 20% is fair game for all. While Clinton has regained a lead in many polls, she seems least likely to gain support from undecided’s and second-choice voters. Edwards polls best, with Obama a close second, for second-place picks. This, along with his recent momentum, gives Edwards the best opportunity for winning an upset in Iowa.

Obama and Hillary, however, benefit from the weather. Most polls predict not only who respondents say they will support, but how likely they are to vote (based on statements and previous voting habits). Most believe Obama and Hillary are relying the most on first-time caucus goers, which makes weather in a snowy place like Iowa very important. (It’s also real important for Hillary to get older women to the caucuses.) God seems to be clearing the way for as many people to vote as possible. This may benefit Obama the most – who seems to have the softest Iowa support and leaning on new younger and Independent voters.

Obama’s best opportunity is a big-turnout couples with a flow of anti-Hillary sentiment. Hillary was the inevitable nominee in this race… so the 72% not supporting her are not likely to come around. If Obama can show he is most electable against both Hillary and a Republican, he might edge out Edwards and take the momentum on January 3.

UPDATE: The latest Des Moines Register poll has Obama with a sudden surge with a 7-point lead. This is different than a lot of the buzz and other polls, but this could reflect voters looking realistically at who can win the nomination. Also, the Obama campaign claims they’re crowds are still 2-3 times ths size of their oponents… suggesting a belif that polls may not be picking up some of their non-traditional voters.

The Des Moines Register notes: “Obama’s rise is the result in part of a dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents. Both groups prefer the Illinois senator in what has been a very competitive campaign.”

It is amazing how politics can look dramatically different from week to week. Momentum can quickly change from one candidate to another over night, and often for no particular reason. Of course, it’s possible not much has changed – just the punditry and commentary.

Not long ago, I was convinced that Obama was riding to victory and Hillary was headed to defeat in Iowa, with even Edwards’ long-shot chance outpacing Hillary’s frontrunner status. I was also convinced that whoever won Iowa would ride the momentum through New Hampshire and South Carolina. Now I’m not so sure.

Obama doesn’t have the momentum he used to, and the odds seem to be back in Hillary’s court. It could still go to either candidate, and Edwards could still pull an upset. I think my prediction right now would be a Hillary victory in Iowa, but I don’t know if that would have the impact on New Hampshire that I’d expect. Sure, whoever wins Iowa will get some momentum. But while five days is short, the challenger could easily regain momentum as voters in New Hampshire are faced with the decision to agree or disagree with Iowans.

This would be even more likely if Obama was challenging Hillary. Edwards is weaker in New Hampshire, and many will question who would win a head-to-head match-up. And since the race has always been about Hillary, voters would then have a final say on if they liked the idea of her presidency or not. If Obama rebounded at all, he could then motivate a larger African American base in South Carolina – who might wish to undo the results of two overly white, less diverse states.

The Republican side is even more unpredictable. Huckabee may have peeked too soon, and it seems the Establishment is more and more against a Huckabee election. I now think Romney will probably pull off a victory, but it will be close with McCain’s third-place showing winning the expectations game. McCain could become the alternative to both candidates come New Hampshire. If he can stick in it, he might win the nomination and stop Giuliani before he leaves the gate. But if Romney’s sweeping strategy works by the end of South Carolina, Giuliani’s dying campaign might have enough energy to start a battle in the other 47 states.

I am not going to post new predictions, as I might change them again anyway… maybe I’ll post some thoughts on January 2.

P.S. The big surprise to watch for would still be a Gore endorsement… if so, I am guessing it would be good news for Obama.

So I hate the consumeristic assault on Christmas and would love to see Christmas be about Jesus Christ again… so why am I not a fan of Mike Huckabee using his campaign to promote the true “reason for the season” or the fighting around “Merry Christmas vs. Happy Holidays.” Of course, maybe it’s a fear that the use of Jesus’ birth to win votes or fighting over the words we put on Hallmark cards are distractions from true transformation around what Christmas is all about.

I don’t mind “Merry Christmas,” I just don’t like its use for financial or political gain.

It was fun watching politics while in the hospital. Barrack Obama experienced one of his best weeks ever, with campaigning by Oprah in between to bring him momentum. On the Republican side, it looks like John McCain might finally getting some attention.

The GOP race has become increasingly interesting and unpredictable. McCain was supposed to be the front-runner, but the polls kept pointing to Giuliani while the fundraising kept going to Romney. I never thought this race could come down to Giuliani or Romney, though. The Christian conservatives I knew would never pick a Mormon or Republican Bill Clinton. When Fred Thompson announced his candidacy, I thought support would surely flow to him, but it seems the former Baptist preacher, Mike Huckabee, would win the graces of Christianist conservatives instead.
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